Why it will succeed
- The iPad will crush the Kindle market. It’s cooler, slicker, has a color screen and will have thousands of apps at lau nch. While people can read books and newspapers the bulk of the interesting content is on the web and the web is much better on the iPad then the Kindle.
- The iPad will crush netbooks. It’s a more portable experience and it’s touch enabled. The keyboard is close to full size. The apps are designed to be portable unlike a netbook where you’re trying to use full size apps on a 1/2 size screen. Netbooks are underpowered from a performance standpoint to run typical productivity apps (Office.)
- The computer has traditionally been in the office or the den. This is a move into the living room. If the phone is a communication device and a laptop is for creating content then the iPad is for consuming it and that hasn’t existed before.
Why it is doomed to fail
- The potential owners of the iPad already have an iPhone and a laptop. While some of the scenarios could be better on such a device they are not sufficiently better and the limitations of the platform out-weigh the advantages.
- If the device is a browsing device then the browser makes a huge difference. Because of the closed nature of the iPad we can’t expect to see Chrome, Firefox or Opera on the iPad. Last I checked Safari only had a minority browser share. Add the lack of flash to the equation and a lot of sites will have you reaching for a laptop.
- The iPhone was a success because when the device was released all the existing phones were terrible. The iPhone was a replacement device to something that was flawed. With the iPad it’s not a replacement device. It’s a supplemental device. The problem it’s solving is less of a pain point.
- Basic multi-tasking is obvious and needed on a larger device (music+browsing) or (homework + calculator.) While a single app makes for a simpler experience there’s no reason that I can’t be productive while other apps are loading data, syncing, downloading or doing other background tasks.
Tags: ipad, Iphone, Tablet
Posted in Apple, Prediction, mobile | 2 Comments »
Tablet style computing has been one of the most failed technologies ever. History is full of examples of similar devices that have crashed and burned.
1950′s Styalator electronic tablet, 1960′s RAND Tablet and Dynabook. Various generations of Apple Newton devices, Microsoft Slate’s and Windows for Pen based computers. Even the Kindle that has sold about 1.5 million units total could be viewed as a failure when compared to numbers like 40-60 million iPhone’s and iPod Touch devices.
Why have so many companies tried and so many failed? Perhaps more importantly what does Apple think it can do to succeed? Here’s what I predict:
- Best overall device for consuming content. Books, Magazines, Music, DVD’s.
Devices of the past focused on creating content (usually with a pen) only the Kindle was good at reading content and only book form at that.
- Best mobile web-browser. Sure you can pinch and zoom on your phone but if you really want to surf you need something larger. This middle ground is great for a tablet sized device. You can finally read a website on a bus or train without trying to balance a laptop or looking too conspicuous.
- Interface based on the iPhone. Clearly Apple has nailed the iPhone UI. They will take this base and extend it to a larger device. Not as big as a laptop but somewhere in between. The touch based interface will be enhanced with a two hand multi-touch predictive keyboard. Everyone will hate it at first. Three months later everyone will call it brilliant.
- It’ll look like a flat iPhone. 90% screen, a little edge. Thin as hell. It’ll be priced so that people perceive it as being expensive and premium compared to everything else. $799, maybe more. Expect people to say… Why would I get that when I can get a Kindle for $259. That sort of thing just makes people desire it even more.
- App developers will flock to it.
- Magazines will be the killer content.
- Social games will be the killer app.
Tags: Apple, Canvas, Iphone, Slate, Tablet, Taplet
Posted in Apple, Design, Prediction | 2 Comments »
